"The EU’s conflict early warning system is a good example of how to integrate quantitative risk forecasting with traditional diplomatic and intelligence analyses to support the prevention of violent conflict. The system holds important lessons for other multi-method and multi-source early warning ... processes, even beyond conflict prevention – for example to analyse foreign influencing operations and critical economic dependencies. The system’s weak spot is the lack of mechanisms to ensure sustained preventive action. To bridge this gap, the EU should consider anticipatory action protocols with stronger follow-up mechanisms and dedicated funding. Upgrades of the warning system should include complementary foresight methods to detect developments that are hard to predict with current data models, more structured qualitative assessments, and thorough evaluation of preventive instruments." (Summary) more